How to read this dashboard

This is a screen to decide which charts deserve a look. It is not a buy or sell signal and it is not financial advice. Reading the market cannot be fully reduced to a formula; the charts still deserve a look by eye.

The principles behind it

1. Price is the only thing that pays. Indicators are supplements.
2. Closing prices matter most, especially Friday and month-end closes. During the day the numbers here are provisional.
3. Find the primary trend first: uptrend, downtrend, or no trend. Stay away from ranges.
4. Weekly charts for structure, daily charts for timing.
5. 200-period simple moving average as a trend filter, not as support or resistance.
6. 14-period RSI. Bull markets hold roughly 40 to 80 and reach overbought. Bear markets hold roughly 20 to 60 and reach oversold.
7. Relative strength vs the S&P 500. Price and relative strength breaking out together is a strong signal.
8. Old resistance becomes new support. A breakout level is where risk is managed: stay long while price holds above it.
9. Upside targets come from the 161.8% and 261.8% Fibonacci extensions of the last correction.
10. Weight of the evidence: are there more good charts than bad ones?
11. No called strikes. Wait for the perfect pitch. Buy strength, do not chase, cut losses quickly.

Score (from -100 to +100)

Each item counts +1, 0 or -1. The score is the total divided by the number of items that apply.

• Weekly close above or below the 200-week average.
• 14-week RSI: 55 or more is +1, 45 or less is -1.
• Daily close above or below the 200-day average.
• 200-day average rising or falling over the last 20 sessions.
• RSI range over 3 months: bull range (held 40, reached 70) or bear range (held under 60, reached 30).
• Within 5% of the 52-week closing high (+1) or within 5% of the low (-1).
• Anchored VWAP from the start of the year, the 52-week high and the 52-week low: above all (+1) or below all (-1). Not shown where there is no volume, such as currencies.
• Relative strength vs the S&P 500 for stocks, sectors, industries and global ETFs.

Uptrend is +50 or higher. Downtrend is -50 or lower. Anything between is No trend.

Trending means an Uptrend plus a new 52-week or 18-month closing high in the last 5 sessions, or a 14-day RSI of 70 or more. The downside mirror is used for Downtrends.

Anchored VWAP

The average price everyone has paid since a chosen date, weighted by how many shares traded at each price. Price above it means the typical buyer since that date is making money, so buyers are in control. Price below it means the typical buyer is losing money and may sell into rallies to get out even. The three dots are anchored at the start of the year, the 52-week high and the 52-week low.

Fibonacci targets

Shown for markets breaking out to new 52-week or 18-month closing highs. The dashboard finds the last correction (a swing high, then a swing low, at least about 1.5 months of normal movement deep) and projects 161.8% and 261.8% of that decline up from the low. The swing high is the breakout level: old resistance that should now act as support. A tick mark means the target has already been reached. When price reaches a target, the next extension up is added automatically: 423.6%, then 685.4%, then 1109%.

What the evidence added (tested, 2026)

1. Price and relative strength breaking out together is the strongest signal. Requiring the relative strength line to be at a 52-week high with price raised the win rate in every test.
2. About half of all breakouts come back to retest the breakout level (Bulkowski, over 10,000 patterns). Stops belong a little below the level, about 2.5 average daily ranges, not right under it.
3. Let winners run: a 361.8% Fibonacci target beat 261.8% on both win rate and profit factor. Taking profits early at 161.8% wins more often but makes less overall.
4. Stocks in one industry move together. Five oil stocks are closer to one bet than five.
5. Heavy-volume breakouts fail more often (14% vs 5% in Bulkowski's study) and retest far more. Treat them with more care.
6. A high win rate alone is not the goal. Win rate and profit factor (gross wins divided by gross losses) have to rise together.

Chart overlays (tick them in the chart window)

• Fibonacci extensions: for any market, measured from its last completed swing. After a pullback, the levels (100%, 127.2%, 161.8%, 261.8% and beyond) project upward from the low as targets; after a rally, they project downward from the high. Levels already reached are faded and the next one beyond is added.
• Elliott Wave: markets tend to move in five waves with the trend and three against it. The count is automatic: the most recent five swings that obey the three hard rules (wave 2 never retraces all of wave 1, wave 3 is never the shortest, wave 4 never overlaps wave 1). One possible reading, never a certainty.
• DeMark TD Sequential: a 9 marks nine closes in a row below (or above) the close four bars earlier, a sign a move may be getting tired. A 13 is the countdown that follows. Green is a possible end to a decline, red to an advance.
• Bollinger Bands: a 20-period average plus and minus two standard deviations. Price riding the upper band is a strong trend, not automatically overbought.
• Support and resistance: prices where two or more swing highs or lows have clustered within 2%. Old resistance becomes new support.
• MACD: the gap between the 12 and 26-period exponential averages. Bars above zero and rising mean upside momentum is building.
• Volume and a 21-day average are also available.

Commercial hedgers (Metals and Energy)

From the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report: the positions of commercial hedgers, the producers and users of the real commodity. The COT Index shows where their net position (long minus short) sits within its 3-year range, from 0 to 100. 80 or more is Bullish, 20 or less is Bearish, anything between is Neutral. Hedgers tend to buy into weakness and sell into strength, so extremes have often come near turning points. It is a background condition, not a timing signal. Positions are as of Tuesday and published the following Friday.

Fear & Greed Index

Daily Roundup's own index from public data. Six signals: S&P 500 momentum vs its 125-day average, net new 52-week highs among S&P 500 stocks, the share of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day average, the VIX vs its 50-day average, stocks vs Treasury bonds over 20 days, and high-yield bonds vs Treasuries over 20 days. Each is scored 0 to 100 by where today's reading sits within its own past year, and the index is their average.

Metals and Energy Fear & Greed use the same method with six signals for each group: the futures against their 125-day averages, net new 52-week highs and the share above the 50-day average among the group's stocks, the group's volatility index (gold: GVZ, oil: OVX) against its 50-day average, the group's fund (gold miners GDX, energy XLE) against the S&P 500 over 20 days, and the commercial hedgers' COT Index read in reverse.

Bonds Fear & Greed measures enthusiasm for bonds: Treasury funds against their 125-day averages, the share of bond funds above their 50-day average, junk bonds against Treasuries over 20 days, bond volatility (the MOVE index) against its 50-day average, bonds (AGG) against the S&P 500 over 20 days, and Treasury futures hedgers read in reverse.

Bonds

The yield curve shows Treasury yields from 13 weeks to 30 years, with changes in basis points (one basis point is 0.01 percentage point). A curve is inverted when longer yields are below shorter ones, which has often come before recessions. Treasury futures hedgers are read the same way as for commodities.

Currencies

The currency strength table measures each currency against the US dollar, turned where needed so that up always means the currency got stronger; the dollar itself is the dollar index against a basket. Hedgers are the commercial hedgers in each currency's futures, read the same way as for commodities.

Chart tools

In any chart window: scroll to zoom in and out on time, drag the chart to move through history, and drag (or scroll on) the price scale at the right to stretch or squeeze prices. Double-click the price scale to return it to automatic, or double-click the chart to reset everything. Drag the bar under the chart to make it taller or shorter. Draw your own horizontal support and resistance lines and trend lines between two points. Click a line to select it, drag it or its ends to move it, and press Delete to remove it. Your lines stay on each market's chart, in both daily and weekly views, and are saved in your browser on this device.

Not automated

Chart patterns, other support and resistance levels, and momentum divergences still need a person looking at the chart.

Data

Free public Yahoo Finance data for personal use. Prices update every 5 minutes while markets are open and are fully refreshed after each close. Futures can be delayed by 10 to 20 minutes. Prices are split-adjusted, not dividend-adjusted.